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Current Market as of
September 8, 2006
Ø As
of August 15, 2005 inventory of single Family Homes in the
South Bay was at 1938. Today the inventory is at 3171 nearly
double that of a year ago. It is important to note
that inventory
increases have slowed down significantly over the last 5
weeks with only a slight increase since Aug 1.
The rate of change in inventory growth from Aug 1 to Aug 22
was at plus .95 homes per day. However, from Aug 22 to
Sept 8 this number has dropped to plus .67 homes per day.
This may indicate turning point is near and listings
inventory may start to shrink in the next few weeks.
Ø
Interest rates are about 1% higher than a year
ago however, they are down from 3 months ago. The previous
increase in interest rates was a factor in buying activity
slowing down. Now with interest rates somewhat stable for
the last several months, and the vacation season coming to an
end, we may find an increase in buying activity.
Market Direction:
Ø
I see the lower price range ($450,000 to
$600,000) as very active over the next 2 months with
multiple offers still possible for well priced listings.
Homes priced above $800,000 are taking longer to sell as at
this price point there is an abundance of listings compared
to demand.
Ø
If interest rates stay where they are and
inventory starts to decline, we may swing back to a
moderately active market for next year. If I were
contemplating buying a home, the Oct and November months
might be the best time as inventory will still be high
enough to have a good selection, interest rates will likely
be attractive and even if the inventory is declining,
sellers will be softer in their negotiations with the
holiday season approaching.
Ø
(note- I do not have a crystal ball and these
thoughts should only be looked at as my opinion, not fact)
Interest Rates:
Ø
Conforming 30 Year
Fixed 6.375 % or better
Ø
Non-conforming (Jumbo)
30 Year Fixed 6.875 % or better
Interest rates fluctuate
almost daily and may go up or down from these numbers
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Q2 April - June 2006 Santa Clara County
Single Family
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SCC |
CA |
2006 |
69 |
82 |
99.65 |
791,000 |
847,059 |
69,459 |
27 |
141 |
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SCC |
CU |
2006 |
98 |
119 |
102.05 |
1,131,000 |
1,155,527 |
137,508 |
23 |
219 |
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SCC |
GY |
2006 |
304 |
155 |
99.16 |
739,000 |
844,162 |
130,845 |
62 |
398 |
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SCC |
LA |
2006 |
80 |
95 |
100.27 |
1,570,000 |
1,721,938 |
163,584 |
28 |
159 |
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SCC |
LAH |
2006 |
68 |
26 |
93.72 |
2,400,000 |
2,796,710 |
72,714 |
90 |
67 |
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SCC |
LG |
2006 |
139 |
91 |
98.95 |
1,350,000 |
1,478,012 |
134,499 |
48 |
210 |
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SCC |
LGM |
2006 |
90 |
22 |
96.55 |
1,000,000 |
1,083,509 |
23,837 |
130 |
98 |
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SCC |
MH |
2006 |
247 |
111 |
98.87 |
842,000 |
910,420 |
101,057 |
53 |
329 |
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SCC |
MI |
2006 |
118 |
113 |
100.75 |
720,000 |
760,006 |
85,881 |
26 |
244 |
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SCC |
MR |
2006 |
24 |
13 |
93.35 |
1,410,000 |
1,540,769 |
20,030 |
106 |
35 |
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SCC |
MS |
2006 |
28 |
12 |
100.33 |
1,745,000 |
1,982,708 |
23,793 |
39 |
31 |
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SCC |
MV |
2006 |
49 |
93 |
102.13 |
930,000 |
1,017,886 |
94,663 |
27 |
132 |
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SCC |
PA |
2006 |
67 |
184 |
102.11 |
1,380,000 |
1,522,089 |
280,064 |
29 |
216 |
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SCC |
SA |
2006 |
158 |
113 |
99.41 |
1,565,000 |
1,666,530 |
188,318 |
58 |
276 |
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SCC |
SC |
2006 |
132 |
162 |
101.28 |
725,000 |
755,012 |
122,312 |
24 |
304 |
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SCC |
SJ |
2006 |
2034 |
1843 |
100.10 |
725,000 |
802,641 |
1,479,267 |
35 |
3,755 |
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SCC |
SU |
2006 |
129 |
181 |
102.21 |
861,000 |
886,949 |
160,538 |
23 |
321 |
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SCC |
UN |
2006 |
22 |
36 |
97.43 |
499,995 |
1,163,352 |
41,881 |
43 |
18 |
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* = Not Available |
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